Research
Impact of Gubernatorial Partisanship on The Pursuit of the American Dream
CU Denver Economics 2016
By Dana Hagist
Abstract:
Using Current Population Survey (CPS) data matched to gubernatorial election data from 1978 to 2015, I estimate the causal impact of political partisanship under a Democratic or Republican governor on the pursuit of the American Dream. Specifically, I estimate how the partisanship of these parties impacts home ownership, having a job, not being in poverty, having some level of higher education, and being covered under a healthcare plan. Although these outcomes are often related, each of them are considered individually for this research. Furthermore, I estimate heterogeneous effects for different subsets of the population including blacks, whites, females and males by comparing across these groups. I utilize a regression discontinuity (RD) design with state and year fixed-effects, and find that under a Democratic governor: Employment rates are flat to slightly decreasing for white individuals and increase for black individuals. Poverty rates are relatively flat for white individuals and decrease for blacks. When comparing women to men, college education rates decrease for men but increase for women. Employment rates are flat to slightly decreasing for men and increase for women. Poverty rates decrease for women relative to no change for men. Under a Republican governor, there is evidence of a large disadvantage for both blacks and women, so the impact of having a Democratic governor appears to narrow this gap.